AIC Statement on President Trump’s Election: A New Opportunity for US-Iran Relations

As President Donald Trump is poised to take office for a second time, many are predicting a difficult and turbulent future for US-Iran relations. While it is true that Trump's rhetoric has been confrontational at times, we believe this moment presents a unique opportunity to improve relations between the two nations.

1. Trump’s Deal-Making Approach

At his core, President Trump is a dealmaker. His approach to foreign policy has been driven by the desire to secure favorable agreements, often by challenging the status quo and pushing for new terms that benefit the United States. This pragmatism, which focuses on the bottom line, could open the door for a redefined relationship with Iran. In the past, negotiations with Iran have often been bogged down by entrenched positions. Trump's business-oriented mindset could provide the flexibility needed to craft new deals that address mutual interests—whether they be in trade, security, or regional stability.

2. Personal Dynamics with Netanyahu

While President Trump has been a vocal supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, their relationship is not without complexities. Trump’s personal rapport with Netanyahu has at times been strained, suggesting that there may be less of an automatic alignment with Israeli hardliners than many might assume. This could create room for a more independent US foreign policy approach, one that is less tethered to the traditional narratives and pressures from those who prioritize an uncompromising stance on Iran.

3. Anti-War Sentiment and Fiscal Concerns

Another underappreciated aspect of Trump's propensities is his aversion to unnecessary wars and his skepticism about foreign military engagements that drain US resources. This skepticism is shared by many in Iran, where government and public sentiment are broadly opposed to further conflict, particularly with the US. Given Trump's well-documented concern about US military overreach and spending abroad, there is potential for common ground between Washington and Tehran on de-escalating tensions and avoiding new military conflicts.

4. Tehran’s Desire for De-Escalation

It is also important to recognize the shift in Iran’s internal political climate. There is growing sentiment within the country, driven by economic challenges, pressure from Israel, and the ongoing burden of sanctions, that favors a de-escalation of tensions with the United States. Some Iranian leaders, including Iran’s moderate President Pezeshkian, have expressed interest in diplomacy and engagement. Trump’s focus on reducing US entanglements abroad could align with this internal desire for calm, creating the potential for a new diplomatic opening.

5. Shared Rhetorical Style

Interestingly, both President Trump and Iran’s leadership share a penchant for colorful, over-the-top rhetoric. This often-inflammatory style—whether in the form of Trump’s bold statements or Iran’s fiery denunciations—can sometimes obscure underlying opportunities for diplomacy. In both cases, the language may be more about posturing than a literal reflection of intent. The ability to read beyond the bluster and identify mutual interests could be key to finding common ground.  

Moreover, just as President Richard Nixon’s tough, no-nonsense image was key to his groundbreaking 1972 visit to China—where only someone perceived as strong could take the bold steps required to change the course of history—President Trump’s persona, with his outsider status and willingness to upend traditional diplomatic norms, could similarly be the leader to make the hard choices that initiate a shift in US-Iran relations.

While it is highly unlikely that Tehran would extend an official invitation to the Trump administration for direct negotiations, such an overture could nonetheless prove highly effective. Much was made of Saudi Arabia’s warm reception of Trump following his election in 2016, with the Kingdom keen to embrace his leadership and personality. Similarly, Trump's reputation as a consummate host—shaped by his background in real estate and casino management—aligns well with Persian cultural values and the concept of taarof, the art of courteous self-effacement and exaggerated politeness. Trump, who has consistently shown an appreciation for gestures of respect and ceremonial hosting, may find this aspect of Iranian culture appealing and conducive to building rapport. A well-framed overture from Iran could go a long way to laying the groundwork for meaningful engagement.

Conclusion: A Chance for Bold Diplomacy

While the election of President Trump has been met with concern by many in the international community, we urge a more nuanced view: this moment is one of potential rather than inevitable disaster. Both the US and Iran stand at a crossroads, where pragmatism, mutual respect, and a shared interest in avoiding conflict could pave the way for improved relations. If we approach this opportunity with patience, creativity, and an understanding of each other's interests, there may be new pathways toward peace and cooperation that we have yet to fully explore.