Iran Digest Week of April 19- 26
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
US issues further sanctions on Iran, targets drones
The United States on Thursday issued further sanctions on Iran, targeting Iranian drones, including their use by Russia in the war in Ukraine, as Washington seeks to ratchet up pressure on Tehran.
The U.S. Treasury Department in a statement said the action, taken in coordination with the United Kingdom and Canada, targets over one dozen entities, individuals and vessels it accused of playing a key role in facilitating and financing the clandestine sale of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles to Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).
MODAFL in turn supports Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Russia's war in Ukraine, the Treasury said.
(Reuters)
House Responds To Israeli-Iranian Missile Exchange By Taking Rights Away From Americans
Civil liberties groups are raising alarms about a bill making its way through Congress that applies pressure for a ban on travel to Iran for Americans using U.S. passports. The rights groups see the bill as part of a growing attempt to control the travel of American citizens and bar Iranian Americans in particular from maintaining connections with friends and loved ones inside Iran.
“This bill is very concerning because it’s the beginning of a process of criminalizing something that is very normal for many people, which is traveling to Iran,” said Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council. “If you’re an American citizen, the government should not be controlling where you can travel.”
Along with a flurry of other sanctions bills targeting Iran, the bill calling for the travel restrictions passed the U.S. House last week. The bill is now slated to come before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Women of Iran
Iran's Israel strike coincided with crackdown on dissent at home
The same day Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel it embarked on a less-noticed confrontation at home, ordering police in several cities to take to the streets to arrest women accused of flouting its strict Islamic dress code.
Iranian authorities insist that their so-called Nour (Light) campaign targets businesses and individuals who defy the hijab law, aiming to respond to demands from devout citizens who are angry about the growing number of unveiled women in public.
But activists and some politicians say the campaign appears aimed not only at enforcing mandatory hijab-wearing, but also at discouraging any wider dissent at a vulnerable moment for the clerical rulers.
(Reuters)
Economy
Mounting Critique in Iran Over Handling Of Economic Crisis
An increasing number of Iranian politicians, media outlets, and senior clerics are voicing criticism of the government's handling of the country's worsening economic crisis.
With inflation expected to surpass 50%, the Iranian people are facing increasingly desperate conditions.
Referring to the hardships that many families are grappling with, Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi-Amoli warned that these problems could eventually lead to loss of faith in a meeting with the CEO of Iran’s National Bank (Bank Melli Iran) earlier this week.
Inside Iran
Court in Iran Sentences Prominent Rapper to Death, His Lawyer Says
A dissident rapper has been sentenced to death in Iran after releasing music in support of antigovernment demonstrations that rocked the country in 2022, according to his lawyer, in a case that has prompted global condemnation.
The rapper, Toomaj Salehi, 33, was one of the most prominent voices among those arrested over nationwide protests against Iran’s clerical rulers after the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, 22. Human rights organizations have been calling for Mr. Salehi’s release, saying that he has been tortured in prison and warning that he could face execution.
Amir Raesian, Mr. Salehi’s lawyer, told the Iranian reformist newspaper Shargh in an article published on Wednesday that a court in the central city of Isfahan had sentenced Mr. Salehi to death and that his client planned to appeal.
Regional Politics
Iran’s supreme leader tacitly acknowledges that Tehran hit little in its attack on Israel
Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday dismissed any discussion of whether Tehran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel hit anything there, a tacit acknowledgment that despite launching a major assault, few projectiles actually made it through to their targets.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comments before senior military leaders didn’t touch on the apparent Israeli retaliatory strike on Friday on the central city of Isfahan, even though air defenses opened fire and Iran grounded commercial flights across much of the country.
Analysts believe both Iran and Israel, regional archrivals locked in a shadow war for years, are trying to dial back tensions following a series of escalatory attacks between them as the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip rages on and inflames the wider region.
(AP News)
Iran, Kuwait discuss ways to beef up maritime border security
Iranian border police commander Brigadier General Ahmad-Ali Goudarzi in a meeting with Director General of Kuwait’s Coast Guard, Sheikh Mobarak Ali Al-Sabah, conferred on ways to enhance the security of maritime borders.
During the meeting which was held in Kuwait on Sunday, the Kuwaiti official proposed boosting commercials, fishing vessels search and rescue efforts, and combating drug smuggling and maritime piracy, according to KUNA news agency.
Goudarzi, for his part, underscored the importance of conducting joint patrols at sea, exchanging information and experiences, combating smuggling and illegal activities, IRNA reported.
Analysis
Is an Anti-Iran Alliance Emerging in the Middle East?
By: Dalia Dassa Kaye & Sanam Vakil
When Iran directed over 300 missiles and drones at Israel on April 13, Jordan helped fend off the attack. Initial media reports suggested that several other Arab states assisted in Israel’s defense, efforts they later denied. Nonetheless, a chorus of Israeli leaders, as well as some observers in Washington, interpreted these acts as a sign of a major shift. These Arab states, the argument went, would side with Israel if its conflict with Iran continued to escalate. Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, the Israel Defense Forces’ chief of staff, declared that Iran’s attack had “created new opportunities for cooperation in the Middle East.” The Institute for National Security Studies, a leading Israeli think tank, declared that “the regional and international coalition that participated in intercepting launches from Iran toward Israel demonstrates the potential of establishing a regional alliance against Iran.”
After Israel responded to the Iranian attack with a relatively limited strike on a military facility in Iran, the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius opined that Israel was “behaving like the leader of a regional coalition against Iran.” With its muted response, he wrote, “it appeared to be weighing the interests of its allies in this coalition—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan—which all provided quiet help in last weekend’s shoot-down.” In Ignatius’s view, this represented a potential “paradigm shift for Israel,” one that would give the Middle East a “new shape.”
This round of Iran-Israel escalation is over, but the next could be just around the corner
By: Raz Zimmt
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel on April 14, in retaliation for an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria, represented the most dangerous round of conflict between the two countries in decades. This attack involved more than 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
The killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi at the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus on April 1 was the final straw. Zahedi joined a long list of Iranian officers killed in Syria by Israel since December 2023, including Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior IRGC officer assassinated on December 25, 2023, in Damascus. Despite threats by senior Iranians that the Islamic Republic would respond harshly to Israel’s assassinations, Iran ultimately took limited action. On January 17, the IRGC-Navy launched an attack on two Israeli-owned ships in the Indian Ocean, and another attack targeted a building identified by Iran as the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad’s headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Following Mousavi’s assassination, voices in Iran calling for a rethinking of Iran’s “strategic patience” policy toward Israel grew louder in an effort to reestablish deterrence. The Tabnak news agency claimed that Israel’s recent actions represent an unprecedented surge in the “level of Zionist arrogance” and that Iran’s failure to respond to Israeli attacks may reveal its weakness. The conservative website Alef asserted that the concept of strategic patience had been misinterpreted as apathy and lack of response, resulting in the series of assassinations carried out by Israel. The website cautioned that continuing the existing policy will expose senior commanders to threats and undermine Iranian deterrence.
The Iran-Israel War Is Just Getting Started
By: Raphael S. Cohen
In the early hours of April 13, two minor miracles happened. First, in a remarkable display of technical prowess, Israel—with help from Britain, France, Jordan, and the United States—intercepted some 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles fired primarily from Iran toward Israel, reportedly with 99 percent effectiveness and minimal damage to lives and infrastructure. Second, after many months of largely negative media coverage and mounting international pressure, Israel enjoyed some sympathy and positive press. Given the double success of a repulsed attack and an improved image for Israel, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly counseled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “You got a win. Take the win.” A host of other allies and experts had similar advice for Israel.
Israel, however, has shown little interest in taking this advice. While it reportedly called off an immediate counterattack and seems content to “slow things down,” as Biden requested, Israeli leaders—including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Israel Defense Forces chief Herzi Halevi, war cabinet member Benny Gantz, and Netanyahu himself—all promised retaliation. And Friday morning, Israel conducted a counterstrike on an air defense system at an Iranian air base in Isfahan in central Iran. Although the strike appears to have been largely symbolic, it nonetheless raises the question: Why is Israel bucking the United States and its other allies yet again, especially after those very same countries just came to Israel’s aid?
Ultimately, there are a lot of bad reasons floating around for why Israel struck back. But there is also one good and overarching one, and that is the fact that Israel and Iran remain locked in war, which will continue beyond today. As long as that conflict goes on, the operational logic of that conflict will push toward escalation.
