Iran Digest Week of June 7- June 14
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Iran Among Top Hackers in 300 Million Daily Cyberattacks on Microsoft Users
Microsoft President Brad Smith revealed on Thursday that the company detects around 300 million cyberattacks targeting its customers daily, with a majority originating from China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
Smith spent over three hours addressing inquiries from the House Committee on Homeland Security in Washington, emphasizing the integration of cybersecurity into Microsoft's core values.
During the session, members of the US Congress pressed Microsoft to account for lapses that allowed a Chinese hacking group to breach the emails of senior US officials.
Nuclear Accord
Iran installing and starting cascades of advanced centrifuges
Iran has started up new cascades of advanced centrifuges and plans to install others in the coming weeks after facing criticism over its nuclear program, the United Nations' atomic watchdog said Friday. The U.S. called the moves “nuclear escalations.”
Spinning up new centrifuges further advances Iran's nuclear program, which already enriches uranium at near-weapons-grade levels and boasts a stockpile enough for several nuclear bombs if it chose to pursue them. However, the acknowledgement from the International Atomic Energy Agency did not include any suggestion Iran planned to go to higher enrichment levels amid wider tensions between Tehran and the West as the Israel-Hamas war rages in the Gaza Strip.
The IAEA said its inspectors verified Monday that Iran had begun feeding uranium into three cascades of advanced IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment facility. Cascades are a group of centrifuges that spin uranium gas together to more quickly enrich the uranium.
(ABC News)
Women of Iran
Senior Iranian Official Touts Violent Hijab Crackdown ‘Great Achievement’
Iran's Minister of Interior praised the brutal enforcement of the radical hijab regulation under the recent 'Noor' plan as one of the police's "greatest honors."
Ahmad Vahidi said the police actions in implementing the plan which have included violent beatings and sexual assaults, were in line with "protecting the family."
Since its initiation on April 13, the hijab crackdown has worsened under the legislation which came from a mass rejection of the Islamic dress code in the wake of the 'Women, Life, Freedom' movement sparked by the death in policy custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
Economy
Iran’s Tax Revenue Surge Amid Economic Challenges and Sanctions
The Iranian regime’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, Ehsan Khandouzi, recently announced that the government’s tax revenues have reached 8,000 trillion rials, equivalent to $13.5 billion.
This achievement marks a historic high for the country’s tax administration, with revenue collections reaching 108% of the approved amount for 2022.
While Khandouzi did not specify the annual growth rate of tax revenues, he highlighted that the previous year’s tax revenues were 4,700 trillion rials, indicating significant growth.
Environment
Iran’s Water Crisis: A Looming Hydrological Drought and Its Impacts
Firooz Ghasemzadeh, spokesperson for Iran’s water industry, recently announced that the country continues to grapple with a severe hydrological drought. Six provinces, including Tehran, Bushehr, Qazvin, Fars, Semnan, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, are currently experiencing significant water stress. Ghasemzadeh highlighted that over 80% of Iran falls within a dry climate zone, exacerbating the water scarcity issues.
Ghasemzadeh pointed out a troubling 19% decline in rainfall in Tehran compared to historical averages over the past 55 years. This decline has been particularly acute over the last three consecutive wet years, contributing to a critical reduction in water resources. The flow of most rivers in Iran was nearly zero until recent months, leading to alarmingly low water levels in many of the country’s dams.
On March 22, coinciding with World Water Day, Iranian media and environmental experts raised alarms about the deteriorating water situation. State-run media echoed these concerns, indicating that the water crisis is worse than ever before. Ghasemzadeh stressed that reversing the effects of three years of low rainfall would require several years of significantly increased precipitation.
Inside Iran
Who are the main contenders to be Iran’s next president?
After three years of ruthless hardline government under Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s 61m voters once again have a choice for president. Ahead of Iran’s snap presidential election, scheduled for June 28th, the Islamic Republic’s electoral-vetting body approved six candidates: three hardliners, two pragmatic conservatives and a reformer. Given that the first five are likely to split the traditionalist vote, a good turnout might even propel a reformist back into the presidency. The helicopter crash that killed Raisi on May 19th “could re-energise Iranian politics”, says a political observer in the capital, Tehran.
The front-runner is a pragmatic conservative, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. As a former military commander and police chief, speaker of parliament and an ally of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he has the credentials of a regime stalwart. If the other four conservatives drop out of the race and lend him their backing (as often happens in Iranian elections), he should be a shoo-in. That said, as a previous three-time presidential contender, he also has a record as a loser. Critics berate him over corruption allegations—which he denies—and hypocrisy (though Mr Qalibaf condemns the West, his son applied for Canadian citizenship).
Regional Politics
Iran Vows to Strengthen Yemen Ally in Response to US Attacks
Iranian officials have told Newsweek that the Islamic Republic was capable of empowering the Yemeni rebel movement that has waged an unprecedented monthslong military campaign against Israel and commercial vessels over the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip in spite of repeated U.S. attacks.
With tensions mounting as President Joe Biden's administration pressed forward with military and diplomatic offensives against Ansar Allah, also spelled Ansarullah and widely known abroad as the Houthi movement, the Iranian officials asserted that both Tehran and its Yemeni ally were foiling the White House's strategy.
"The U.S. assumes that by wielding military power and exerting political dominance over the U.N. Security Council, it can isolate and defeat the Yemeni resistance movement," the Iranian Mission to the United Nations told Newsweek. "The U.S. objective is to either intimidate Iran into severing its ties with Ansarullah or compel it to breach Security Council resolutions, thereby casting Tehran as a violator."
(Newsweek)
Global Relations
Evidence of Iran and UAE drones used in Sudan war
Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been accused of violating a UN arms embargo by supplying drones to the warring sides in the 14-month conflict that has devastated Sudan. We look at the evidence to back up the claim.
On the morning of 12 March 2024, Sudanese government soldiers were celebrating an unprecedented military advance. They had finally recaptured the state broadcaster’s headquarters in the capital, Khartoum.
Like most of the city, the building had fallen into the hands of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) at the start of the civil war 11 months earlier.
(BBC)
Analysis
Great Expectations: The Future of Iranian-Saudi Détente
By: International Crisis Group
What’s new? Since Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed ties in March 2023, the two rivals have named ambassadors, set up embassies and exchanged senior-level visits, but further progress appears to have stalled amid disagreements about important aspects of the revived diplomatic relationship.
Why does it matter? Today’s tentative cooperation between Tehran and Riyadh follows a period of deep hostility. If the two states do not build on the 2023 deal, they could revert to that acrimony, leading to dangerous incidents like the 2019 attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia.
What should be done? Despite disagreements, Tehran and Riyadh should start building confidence by cooperating in areas like health, culture and the environment. Better ties could facilitate increased economic engagement, which Saudi Arabia might give in exchange for shifts in Iran’s nuclear and regional policies, though such an offer would likely require U.S. buy-in.
Will Bahrain and Iran turn a new page? There’s been talk of it.
By: Giorgio Cafiero
While visiting Moscow on May 23, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa told Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country sees “no reason to delay with normalization of relations” with Iran. The king also said that Manama has ceased having problems with Tehran. “We are trying to establish normal diplomatic, trade, and cultural relations with it,” explained King Hamad, who relayed that same message to Chinese Premier Li Qiang eight days later in Beijing.
Earlier this month, Bahrain formally requested that Russia facilitate its renormalization with Iran. This is significant given the extent to which Bahrain’s ruling order has perceived a grave Iranian threat since the 1979 revolution. On April 8, King Hamad pardoned 1,584 prisoners—many of whom were detained for their Arab Spring activism in 2011. Then Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani attended President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral on May 22 after King Hamad sent his condolences to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These moves earned the Arab monarchy goodwill in Tehran.
Reduced tensions in Bahraini-Iranian affairs, and Manama and Tehran’s greater willingness to engage the other, are best understood within the context of regional developments in the past several years. Lower temperatures in the Persian Gulf—specifically, improvements in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) relations with Iran—have created an environment for more tempered ties between Manama and Tehran.
