Iran Digest Week of July 12- July 19
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
U.S. Detected Potential Iranian Plot to Kill Trump Separate From Saturday’s Shooting
U.S. intelligence agencies were tracking a potential Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald J. Trump in the weeks before a gunman opened fire last weekend, several officials said on Tuesday, but they added that they did not consider the threat related to the shooting that wounded Mr. Trump.
The intelligence prompted the Secret Service to enhance security for the former president before his outdoor campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, officials said. Yet whatever additional measures were taken did not stop a 20-year-old local man from clambering on top of a nearby warehouse roof to shoot at Mr. Trump, grazing his right ear and coming close to killing him.
The National Security Council contacted the Secret Service to be sure it was tracking the latest reporting and the agency shared the information with the head of Mr. Trump’s detail, according to a national security official, who like others shared sensitive information on condition of anonymity.
Nuclear Program
Scoop: U.S. privately warned Iran over suspicious nuclear activities
The Biden administration sent a private warning to Iran last month expressing serious concerns about Iranian research and development activities that could be used for the production of a nuclear weapon, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
Why it matters: The U.S. and Israel have both detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists in recent months. Officials fear they could be part of a covert Iranian effort to use the period around the U.S. presidential election to make progress toward nuclear weaponization.
The U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities, as well as senior policy officials from both countries, worked to understand the Iranian activities and whether they constituted a change in policy by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
(Axios)
Women of Iran
Police Summon Women Who Appeared In Video Without Hijabs During Ashura Procession In Iranian City
The chief of police in Iran's Alborz Province said on July 17 that women who took part in an Ashura procession in the city of Karaj without hijabs have been "identified and summoned."
A video posted on Instagram shows a number of young women, most wearing dark clothing but no head scarves, walking in the street in observance of Ashura, a commemoration of the martyrdom of Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, which is marked mainly by Shi'ite Muslims.
To mourn his death, Shi’a wear black during Ashura processions in which many participants beat their backs with chains in a symbolic expression of regret for not being able to help Hussein before his death.
Economy
Iran’s economy more sensitive to foreign shocks than domestic ones
In May, a helicopter crash killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister. Despite the shock, there were no notable economic repercussions, highlighting the insignificance of elected officials on the economy.
We consider two indicators to capture the economic shocks in Iran: the market exchange rate of USD to Iranian rial and the price index of the Iranian stock market. The importance of looking at both indicators is that the first one is the anchor of inflationary expectations in Iran, and the second one is the best indicator available publicly for capturing the private sector’s response to a shock.
The plots below capture these indicators for the days leading to and after the sudden deaths of the president and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Based on these indicators, Iran’s economy did not experience any shocks.
Environment
Extensive Wildfires Ravage Forests Across Iran
Wildfires have engulfed numerous regions in Iran, causing extensive damage to forests and natural resources. Local officials in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province reported a significant fire in the Kouh Siah forests in the Charusa district, which continued throughout Monday. Due to a lack of firefighting resources, local residents have been forced to use pack animals to reach the blaze and combat its spread.
The Zagros forests have suffered from repeated fires in recent days, with the Dezpart region in Khuzestan particularly affected. Reports indicate that 900 hectares of natural resources and 500 trees have been lost to the flames. Despite efforts by local communities with limited resources, many fires have not been swiftly contained, leading to widespread destruction of vegetation and wildlife.
In the protected Khayiz area, known for its valuable flora and fauna, recent fires have caused significant environmental damage. Although the state media claims that fires have been contained, there is still no precise data on the extent of the damage, and aerial images have raised concerns among environmental activists about the severity of the destruction.
(National Council of Resistance of Iran)
Inside Iran
Turkmenistan and Iran sign deal to supply gas to Iraq. Iran will build pipeline to aid delivery
A significant IT outage has disrupted travel, banking, and healthcare services worldwide, while in Iran industrial, public and private systems appear to be running normally except government's intentional interference with Internet.
What happened globally?
A global IT outage hit various industries, including airlines, hospitals, retailers, and other businesses. Nearly 1,400 flights were canceled on Friday, and essential banking, healthcare, and retail services were also affected.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and X, has described Friday’s incident as the "biggest IT failure in history."
Regional Politics
Drone hits Tel-Aviv: Iran-backed Houthis claim attack
A large, long-range drone hit the center of Tel Aviv in the early hours of Friday, in an attack claimed by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia that killed one man and slightly wounding four others, the Israeli military and emergency services said.
The explosion, which did not trigger air raid alarms, occurred hours after the Israeli military confirmed it had killed a senior commander of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon.
"An initial inquiry indicates that the explosion in Tel Aviv was caused by the falling of an aerial target, and no sirens were activated. The incident is under thorough review," the military said in a statement.
As Azerbaijan reopens Iran embassy, normalization remains shaky
The spokesman for the Iranian government, Ali Bahadori Jahromi, confirmed the reopening of the Azerbaijan Embassy in Tehran after 18 months of closure prompted by a deadly attack inside the mission's former building.
In an X post on Monday, Bahadori Jahromi welcomed the move, applauding late President Ebrahim Raisi's diplomatic efforts that he said were "bearing fruit" even after his death.
Baku decided to suspend all activities of its Tehran embassy in January 2023 after a staff member was killed in a shooting inside the promises. Azerbaijani authorities linked the attack to a preplanned "terrorist" plot, but Tehran dismissed the assertion, saying the assailant, who is currently facing trial, stormed the building with personal motives.
Analysis
Why Iran’s New President Won’t Change His Country
By: Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
On July 5, the parliamentarian Masoud Pezeshkian prevailed in Iran’s snap presidential election. It was a surprising win. Pezeshkian is a relative moderate who pledged to engage with the West, end Internet filtering, and cease the morality police’s harassment of women—a program not endorsed by the country’s clerical elite. Instead, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wanted a president in the mold of Pezeshkian’s hard-line predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a May helicopter accident. As a result, most experts believed that Khamenei would maneuver to ensure the election of another proven conservative. As I wrote in Foreign Affairs shortly after the helicopter crash, “Iran’s next president will almost certainly be just like its last.”
But although Pezeshkian may hold different views from Raisi, in practice, his government may operate much like his predecessor’s. Iran’s new president, like its last, is devoted to the Islamic Republic’s structure and identity. During his campaign, he did not promise sweeping shifts: long gone are the days when Iranian presidential candidates proposed lofty visions for promoting democracy, civil society, human rights, and rapprochement with the United States. Instead, Pezeshkian worked to prove that he was the candidate most capable of executing policies set by Khamenei. He pledged fealty, again and again, to the supreme leader. He rejected the reformist-conservative dichotomy, stating that he did not belong to any political camp. Perhaps that is why, although the election featured candidates with supposedly different views, voter turnout was historically low. Only 40 percent of people participated in the first round, and just 49 percent turned out for the second. In the 1997 election, by contrast, the reformist won 70 percent of the ballots in an election in which 80 percent of eligible Iranians voted.
Pezeshkian’s win will lead to some policy shifts. His government, for example, might strike a modest nuclear deal with Washington. It could also create some social and political space for its citizens, particularly for young people and women. If realized, his measures will alleviate the hardship of Iranians’ daily lives and foster a sense of hope and optimism.
How Iran’s Next President Sees an Emerging “New World Order”
By: Javad Heiran-Nia
The concept of a U.S.-led “new world order” was popularized by the United States after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Iran’s incoming president, Masoud Pezeshkian also believes a new world order is emerging, one in which U.S. power is declining but remains significant.
Pezeshkian outlined his views in a recent article in the English-language Tehran Times. In it, he defended Iran’s decision to strengthen ties with Russia and China as well as neighboring countries and the Global South, but also said his administration’s foreign policy would be “balanced” and “include “constructive engagement” with the West.
“My administration will pursue an opportunity-driven policy by creating balance in relations with all countries, consistent with our national interests, economic development, and requirements of regional and global peace and security,” he wrote. “Accordingly, we will welcome sincere efforts to alleviate tensions and will reciprocate good-faith with good-faith.”
