Iran Digest Week of January 11th- January 18th
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US sanctions may significantly disrupt Russian, Iranian oil supply, says IEA
The latest US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil could significantly disrupt Russia's oil supply chains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Wednesday.
The new US sanctions on Iran and Russia announced last Friday, target entities responsible for over one-third of Russian and Iranian crude exports in 2024.
"We maintain our supply forecasts for both countries until the full impact of sanctions becomes more apparent, but the new measures could result in a tightening of crude and product balances," the IEA said.
Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US?
Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States promises Iran a rocky road that could lead to different outcomes when it comes to its relations with the West, analysts say.
US leaders, along with Israelis, have been openly discussing military strikes on top Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure like power plants and oil and petrochemical facilities.
Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have held large-scale military exercises, predominantly focusing on defending sensitive sites.
(Al Jazeera)
Nuclear Program
Israel supplied Iran with centrifuge platforms containing explosives, top official acknowledges
Israel supplied Iran with centrifuge platforms containing explosives for its nuclear enrichment program, a top Iranian official has acknowledged for the first time, underscoring the sophistication of sabotage programs targeting the Islamic Republic.
The comments by Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former foreign minister who serves as vice president for strategic affairs for reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, appear aimed at explaining to the country’s disaffected public the challenges Iran’s government faces under crushing Western sanctions over the program. The comments also acknowledged details previously reported in Israel about a 2021 attack on Iran’s underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.
(AP News)
Women of Iran
Israel supplied Iran with centrifuge platforms containing explosives, top official acknowledges
Israel supplied Iran with centrifuge platforms containing explosives for its nuclear enrichment program, a top Iranian official has acknowledged for the first time, underscoring the sophistication of sabotage programs targeting the Islamic Republic.
The comments by Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former foreign minister who serves as vice president for strategic affairs for reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, appear aimed at explaining to the country’s disaffected public the challenges Iran’s government faces under crushing Western sanctions over the program. The comments also acknowledged details previously reported in Israel about a 2021 attack on Iran’s underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.
(AP News)
Economy
Iran key services shut as rial plunges amid energy crisis, regional tension
Tens of millions of people across Iran are facing major disruptions as authorities shut down services in the face of an exacerbating energy and currency crisis amid historic regional tensions.
This week, government offices, schools, banks and businesses in major provinces and in the capital Tehran have been largely closed due to worsening fuel and power shortages as temperatures dropped to subzero levels.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said on Wednesday that 13 power plants are out of commission due to a lack of fuel.
Bad loans born of cronyism imperil Iranian banking system
A report by Iran's Central Bank has inadvertently highlighted the pervasiveness of insider dealings and corruption that threaten the integrity of Iran’s entire banking system.
The report published by Tehran-based Aftab News website details a list of significant overdue, non-performing loans owed by bank customers and, in turn, the debts these banks owe to the central bank.
27 major institutional debtors who have borrowed from public and private banks collectively hold approximately 790 trillion rials (about $10 billion at the current free market exchange rate) in non-performing loans.
Inside Iran
Iran's navy unveils its first signals intelligence ship
Iran's navy received its first signals intelligence ship on Wednesday, semi-official Tasnim news organisation reported, a few days after the country's army took delivery of 1,000 new drones.
The Zagros is a new category of military vessel equipped with electronic sensors and the ability to intercept cyber-operations and conduct intelligence monitoring, Tasnim said.
"The Zagros signals intelligence ship will be the watchful eye of Iran's navy in the seas and oceans," Navy Commander Shahram Irani said.
Regional Politics
Iran says Gaza ceasefire is a 'victory' for Palestinian resistance
The ceasefire in Gaza represents a "great victory" for the Palestinian resistance, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Thursday, warning against any possible breach by Israel.
Palestinian armed group Hamas and Israel reached a deal for a ceasefire in Gaza that mediators said would take effect on Sunday. The agreement provides for the release of Israeli hostages held there during 15 months of conflict that devastated the enclave and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
"The end of the war and the imposition of a ceasefire on the Zionist regime (Israel) is a clear and great victory for Palestine and a greater defeat for the Zionist regime," a statement by the Guards said.
Global Politics
Putin and Iran's president deepen defence ties with 20-year pact
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian deepened military ties between their countries on Friday by signing a 20-year strategic partnership that is likely to worry the West.
Under the agreement, Russia and Iran will boost cooperation in a range of areas including their security services, military drills, warship port visits and joint officer training.
Neither will allow their territory to be used for any action that threatens the other and will provide no help to an aggressor attacking either nation, according to the text, which also said they would work together to counter military threats.
(Reuters)
Analysis
Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy
By: Hamdi Malik
After the major setbacks experienced by its so-called “axis of resistance” over the past year, the Islamic Republic stands at a crossroads, and which direction it chooses is up for debate in Tehran. The international community is worried the regime might follow North Korea’s path and consider testing a nuclear bomb to deter adversaries from contemplating an attack. The challenge for Washington is convincing Tehran that the costs of this option—both literal and existential—would be too high.
Currently, the regime appears to be of two minds on this issue. One camp is advocating escalation across multiple fronts, particularly the nuclear front. Ahmad Naderi, a member of the parliament’s executive committee, suggested that Iran should “conduct a nuclear test and officially announce it” to achieve “maximum deterrence.” Similarly, parliamentarian Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the national security committee, suggested the government should first increase uranium enrichment to 70-80 percent and then move toward developing a bomb. (For more on enrichment percentages and related issues, see this Washington Institute infographic or the associated Iran Nuclear Glossary.) Although Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not specifically commented on the nuclear issue of late, these voices align with his generally defiant public rhetoric against the United States, including earlier this month.
