Iran Digest Week of August 18- August 25
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US- Iran Relations
US-Iran prisoner swap deal is ‘on track’, says White House official
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said that a prisoner swap deal between the United States and Iran is “on track”, less than two weeks after Tehran moved five detained US citizens to house arrest.
Sullivan’s comments on Tuesday marked a rare public expression of confidence from Washington that the prisoner swap would take place.
“We believe that things are proceeding according to the understanding that we’ve reached with Iran,” Sullivan told reporters during a conference call.
Economy
Iran Looks For Its Lost Billions In Syria
The release of Iran’s $6 billion frozen funds from South Korea has prompted a website in Tehran to ask: What about over $30 billion owed by the Syrian regime?
Aftab News, a website relatively independent of the current rulers and said to be close to other regime insiders, argued in an article published Thursday, that the outlook for Syria to pay Iran back looks bleak. Iran has a small share of Syria’s trade, roughly one-tenth of what Turkey exports to the country. Annual Iranian exports are less than $1.5 billion.
Both Iran and its ally, the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria face serious economic challenges. Iran’s finances have steadily deteriorated since 2018 when the United States imposed sanctions after withdrawing from the JCPOA nuclear accord. Syria has remained in political limbo, insecurity, with various military groups roaming in the country and its other ally Russia weakened by its invasion of Ukraine.
Iranian Banks Liquidating As Regime Seeks To Avert Panic
Islamic Republic’s officials are in damage control mode over the Central Bank of Iran’s decision to dissolve several banks and financial institutions by October.
The liquidation of Tosse-eh (Development) Credit Institution is in its final stages while the order to dissolve Ayandeh (Future) Bank was given to the Central Bank earlier this week. There are several other financial institutions, such as Caspian and Nour, that are set to dissolve or merge with other banks.
Reports of the liquidation of the unprofitable banks have been circulating in recent years, with Tosse-eh sending messages to its customers asking them to close their accounts until mid-March 2022. The institution has 30 branches all over Iran.
Tanker Believed to Hold Sanctioned Iran Oil Starts Offloading Near Texas
An oil tanker long suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian crude oil offloaded its cargo near Texas on Sunday, tracking data showed, even as Tehran has threatened to target shipping in the Persian Gulf over it.
Ship-tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press showed the Marshall Islands-flagged Suez Rajan began the hourslong ship-to-ship transfer of its oil to another tanker, the MR Euphrates, near Galveston, some 70 kilometers (45 miles) southeast of Houston.
The fate of the cargo aboard the Suez Rajan has become mired in the wider tensions between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic, even as Tehran and Washington work toward a trade of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets in South Korea for the release of five Iranian-Americans held in Tehran. Iran has been trying to evade sanctions and continue selling its oil abroad, while the U.S. and its allies have been seizing cargoes since 2019 after the country's nuclear deal allowing the trade collapsed.
(VOA)
Inside Iran
Another one of America's adversaries just unveiled a new drone that closely resembles the US military's combat-proven MQ-9 Reaper
Iran unveiled a new drone this week that closely resembles the US military's MQ-9 Reaper, becoming the latest country to produce an aircraft that looks like the formidable American combat drone.
State-run media on Tuesday published a video unveiling Iran's new drone, called the "Mohajer 10," full of glitzy footage showcasing the aircraft alongside strobe lights and a fog machine, as well as shots of the drone taking off, flying, and landing back on a runway.
Iran claims the Mohajer 10 can operate for 24 straight hours and has an operational range of over 1,200 miles, according to the government-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), putting Israel — Tehran's longstanding enemy and a key US ally — potentially within the aircraft's reach.
Iranian Lawmaker Calls For Raisi’s Resignation Or No Second Term
Iranian and regional media continue to assess President Ebrahim Raisi's performance as he enters the third year of his presidency.
Tehran's Khabar Online website quoted lawmaker Gholam Ali Jafazadeh Imanabadi on Tuesday, who stated that Raisi's track record over the past two years is characterized by failure. Imanabadi emphasized that Raisi should either step down or refrain from seeking a second term.
Imanabadi pointed out that Raisi has been unable to address unemployment, poverty, social tensions, and various other issues impacting the nation's welfare during the past two years. He further noted that Raisi's track record lacks any positive points and accused him of resisting the rule of law within the country.
(Iran International)
Iran sentences 8 to prison over paramilitary's death during last year's nationwide protests
Iran sentenced seven men and a woman to prison after their convictions over allegedly aiding two men who were earlier executed for killing a paramilitary volunteer during the nationwide protests last year that followed Mahsa Amini's death in police custody, state media reported Wednesday.
The sentences come just ahead of the one-year anniversary of Amini's Sept. 16 death, as authorities have been rounding up activists and others in an apparent attempt to tamp down on any dissent ahead of it.
The report by the judiciary's Mizan news agency offered the first official confirmation of the sentences apparently handed down earlier by a Revolutionary Court in the city of Karaj, where the November slaying happened. The report said the country's Supreme Court upheld the sentences handed down following an appeal by the lawyers for those convicted.
(ABC News)
Regional Politics
Iran Seeks to Make a Friend of Old Enemy Azerbaijan
It wasn’t so long ago that war seemed possible between Iran and its northern neighbor.
The two countries have been engaged in their most serious confrontation since the early 1990s when the first Nagorno-Karabakh war ended. The attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran earlier this year, as well as its increasingly emboldened foreign policy toward its rival Armenia, contributed to a sharp deterioration of relations with the Islamic Republic.
And yet, Iran and Azerbaijan appear to be defusing the tensions. The rhetoric has changed. When speaking on the phone with his Azeri colleague Jeyhun Bayramov in June, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian emphasized the need to boost bilateral ties. An unscheduled meeting took place between the Iranian minister and President Ilham Aliyev at the Non-Aligned Movement gathering in Baku the following month.
(CEPA)
Global Relations
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt Join Emerging Nations Group
Seeking more political and economic influence in a global system dominated by the United States and Europe, the BRICS club of emerging nations agreed on Thursday to expand by bringing on six new countries.
The expansion was regarded as a significant victory for the two leading members of the group, increasing China’s political clout and helping to reduce Russia’s isolation. Yet, Russia and China face growing economic headwinds that could undermine the economies of the very nations whose interests they claim to be promoting.
Joining China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa in the group are three members from the Middle East, most notably Saudi Arabia and a fiercely anti-American Iran, a firm backer of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Analysis
This is how Iranian history shapes the Islamic Republic’s relationship with the world
By: Kelly Shannon
Tensions in the Iran-Russia relationship have surfaced publicly since July, when Russia supported the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) in its dispute with Iran over islands in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials publicly criticized Russian behavior and, on July 18, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian asserted, “The people should not at all think that the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its greatness and power, wants to sell the country to Russia, China, the US, France, Britain, and Germany. Regarding China and Russia, we act within the framework of our interests. But we will never allow our independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity to be harmed by them.”
While differing national interests contribute to these tensions, history also plays a role in Iran’s relationship with Russia, as well as the rest of the world. Iranians have a long historical memory, and Iran’s foreign policy is shaped in many ways by the nation’s history. It is important for US policymakers to understand how Iran sees the world through the lens of history and use this knowledge to advance US policy goals.
More than recent history—the 1979 revolution and the regime’s four decades of grievances against the United States—drives Iran’s worldview. Despite the Islamic Republic’s attempts to distance itself from the country’s pre-Islamic past and Pahlavi Iran, older historical impulses and experiences still drive Iran’s behavior, whether the regime acknowledges it or not. Three of these impulses are particularly important for US policy and the Iran-Russia relationship: Iran always fiercely resisted foreign domination; Iran often sought a benevolent ally from outside the region to support its quest for sovereignty; and Iran wished to be seen as a serious power deserving of respect.
