Iran Digest Week of July 19- July 27
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
US election: How would Kamala Harris deal with Iran?
Following the withdrawal of US President Joe Biden from the US presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris is widely expected to be nominated as the Democrat's candidate in the coming weeks.
If Harris wins the presidency, she is expected to largely stick to Biden's foreign policy script on key issues.
"Harris's policy appears to pursue a conflicted de-escalation with Iran by trying to reach, if not a new nuclear deal, at least a new agreement or understanding that would pause Iran's nuclear weapon development," Arman Mahmoudian, lecturer and international affairs analyst at the University of South Florida in the US, told DW.
(DW)
Talks with Trump feasible, say pundits in Iran
Commentators and analysts in Iran believe that negotiations with the Trump administration will be feasible if he wins the US elections, despite his tough stance against the Islamic Republic during his first term.
Former diplomat Nasrollah Tajik told reporters in Tehran that although former Iranian government's negotiations with the United States cannot be relied upon, Tehran can still pursue further discussions with Washington regarding its nuclear program and US sanctions.
Tajik however, noted that before any negotiations, the Iranian leadership should clarify its policy toward the United States. Meanwhile, he called on Iranian officials to sort out the technical problems with the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA as a first step for starting negotiations with Washington.
Women of Iran
Iran sentences woman activist to death
Iranian Kurdish civil activist Pakhshan Azizi was sentenced to death, sparking widespread protests from social media users and human rights organizations. The protests condemned the Islamic Republic for its brutal retaliation against female activists.
Her lawyers received the verdict on Tuesday.
This marks the second death sentence for a female political prisoner in Iran in recent weeks. Earlier, Sharifeh Mohammadi, a labor activist held in Lakan Prison in Rasht, was sentenced to death by the city's Islamic Revolutionary Court, also on charges of rebellion.
(VOA)
Economy
The Iranian economy under President Pezeshkian
Iranians have elected a Reformist president. The initial degree of optimism among economic stakeholders can be best seen in the value of the national currency—the rial—on the open market. The US dollar traded for 586,500 IRR on July 27, appreciating by 6% since June 27, the day before the first round of the presidential elections.
Having said that, some observers have suggested that the Masoud Pezeshkian administration will just represent a continuation of the Hassan Rouhani presidency (2013-21) and opined that the president-elect’s economic policies will be similar to the approach under the previous moderate government. But is this accurate?
All governments in Iran talk about combating inflation, increasing purchasing power, and pushing back against corruption and mismanagement. Yet experience has shown that these objectives have been difficult to achieve. The best proof of the disappointing results can be seen in the devaluation of the national currency and the inflation under the various administrations.
Inside Iran
Severe heatwave in Iran forces shops and public institutions to close
A heatwave blanketing Iran has forced authorities to cut operating hours at various facilities on Saturday and order all government and commercial institutions to close on Sunday, as hospitals received more than 200 people for heatstroke treatment.
Temperatures ranged from 37C (98.6F) to 42C (107F) in the capital, Tehran, according to weather reports.
The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said banks, offices and public institutions across the country would close on Sunday to protect people’s health and conserve energy and that only emergency services and medical agencies would be excluded.
Iran's energy crisis worsens amid scorching heat and mismanagement
As Iran battles a heatwave, the nation's energy infrastructure is under severe pressure, exposing the government's long-standing failures and mismanagement.
In the face of rising temperatures and heat, the Iranian government has announced the closure of government offices and banks nationwide on Sunday, July 28.
Ali-Akbar Mehrabian, the Minister of Energy, has acknowledged the challenges in producing and supplying electricity, highlighting the increasing pressure on the power grid. "From today on, it will become increasingly difficult to produce and supply sufficient electricity," Mehrabian stated, adding that each one-degree increase in temperature puts an additional 2,300 megawatts of pressure on the grid.
Global Relations
Amid US-sanction fears, can India, Iran move ahead with $370M port deal?
Having signed a long-term bilateral deal in May, New Delhi and Tehran felt that they could finally make meaningful progress on Chabahar, Iran’s only port with direct access to the Indian Ocean. Though India had another agreement with Iran for the port signed in 2016, their earlier plans never took off, even though New Delhi obtained a sanctions waiver from Washington in 2018 in order to proceed with the work.
Under the new agreement, the India Ports Global (IGPL) company will be allowed to operate and develop the Shahid Beheshti port within Chabahar — which consists of two separate ports, the other one being Shahid Kalantari — for 10 years.
But just hours after New Delhi finalized the second deal in May, the United States warned of potential sanctions on any country that has business deal with Tehran. In a May 14 press briefing, State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel emphasized that “all Iran sanctions” are still in place, adding, “We advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risks.”
Iran warns of ‘consequences’ after Germany closes Tehran-linked Islamic centers
Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani warned Germany on Saturday that its closure of Tehran-linked Islamic centers will have consequences.
On Wednesday, Germany’s Interior Ministry announced the ban on the Islamic Center Hamburg (IZH) and its subsidiary organizations, citing their radical Islamist goals and direct control by Tehran. Authorities searched 53 premises across eight German states under a court order.
In a phone call with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Iran's top diplomat expressed Tehran's protest at the closure of the Islamic centers, calling it a "politicized, Islamophobic move".
Analysis
The U.S. Should Negotiate With Iran on One Issue Right Now
By: Trita Parsi & Sajjad Safaei
Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled an openness to resuming dialogue with Washington on nuclear matters, and senior figures in his administration have indicated their readiness to even negotiate with a future president Donald Trump-the man directly responsible for triggering the unraveling of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled an openness to resuming dialogue with Washington on nuclear matters, and senior figures in his administration have indicated their readiness to even negotiate with a future president Donald Trump-the man directly responsible for triggering the unraveling of the 2015 nuclear deal.
With elections looming in November, the Biden administration cannot offer Iran comprehensive assurances on outstanding issues, such as the nuclear deal, that extend beyond its term, especially as the specter of a second Trump presidency casts a dark pall of uncertainty over the deal's future.
The Uncomfortable Reality of Russia and Iran’s New Defense Relationship
By: Hanna Notte & JIim Lamson
On April 2, 2024, Ukraine’s military struck several buildings in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia’s Tatarstan region. The strike demonstrated Ukraine’s steadily improving ability to hold targets deep inside Russia at risk. But it was also a stark reminder of just how far Iranian-Russian defense cooperation has come since 2022: As of last year, Russia has indigenized the production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones at Alabuga — practicing a degree of cooperation with Tehran that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. The Shaheds and other Iranian-origin drones deployed by Russia have created a severe headache for Ukraine, leading its military planners to resort to the April strike.
From the 1990s to 2022, Russia provided, off and on, important military assistance to Iran across the ground, aerospace, and naval domains, largely focused on hardware instead of technology transfers. In addition to Russian support to Iran’s nuclear program, this assistance included the provision of tanks, armored vehicles, anti-tank missiles, combat aircraft, helicopters, and surface-to-air missiles, among others. Assistance — at least in the 1990s — also entailed unofficial transfers by low-level Russian entities to Iran’s ballistic missile and suspected chemical and biological weapons programs.
Since 2022, Russia’s defense relationship with Iran has taken a big leap forward. Cooperation has moved past the previous patron-client dynamic, with Iran emerging as a key enabler of Russia’s air and ground campaign in Ukraine. Military-technical collaboration has intensified in existing areas, while also advancing to new frontiers such as the joint development of novel uncrewed aerial vehicles. Amid a general weakening of past constraints on cooperation, Iran and Russia have also taken steps to further institutionalize their defense relationship.
