Iran Digest Week of August 2- August 9
/AIC’s Iran digest project covers the latest developments and news stories published in Iranian and international media outlets. This weekly digest is compiled by associate Samuel Howell. Please note that the news and views expressed in the articles below do not necessarily reflect those of AIC.
US-Iran Relations
Microsoft researchers report Iran hackers targeting US officials before election
Microsoft researchers said on Friday that Iran government-tied hackers tried breaking into the account of a "high ranking official" on the U.S. presidential campaign in June, weeks after breaching the account of a county-level U.S. official.
The breaches were part of Iranian groups' increasing attempts to influence the U.S. presidential election in November, the researchers said in a report that did not provide any further detail on the "official" in question.
The report follows recent statements by senior U.S. Intelligence officials that they'd seen Iran ramp up use of clandestine social media accounts with the aim to use them to try to sow political discord in the United States.
(Reuters)
US charges man with alleged ties to Iran in foiled assassination plot
A Pakistani man with alleged ties to Iran has been charged in the United States in connection with a foiled plot to assassinate a U.S. politician or government officials, the Justice Department said on Tuesday.
Asif Merchant, 46, sought to recruit people in the United States to carry out the plot in retaliation for the U.S. killing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' top commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, according to a criminal complaint.
Former President Donald Trump, who as president approved the drone strike on Soleimani, was discussed as a potential target of the plot, but the scheme was not conceived of as a plot to assassinate the former president, according to a person familiar with the matter.
(Reuters)
Women of Iran
Video of Iran's Morality Police Beating Teen Girls Sparks Outrage
A viral video of Iran's Morality Police beating two teenage girls for not wearing headscarves in Tehran has sparked widespread outrage on social media.
The incident has reignited calls for President Masoud Pezeshkian to fulfill his campaign promises to disband the controversial morality police.
The video, released on Tuesday, shows officers from the "Noor" plan confronting two teenage girls on Vatanpour Street in northern Tehran. The "Noor" plan was started earlier this year to enforce hijab regulations.
Economy
Iran's president picks top economists amid pressure to revive economy
The morning Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran felt eerily similar to the morning Qasem Soleimani was assassinated. We woke up, picked up our phones, and read the news in shock. We imagined the worst—war. The anxiety was there, but not as intense as the last time.
It was unclear what had caused Haniyeh’s death. “A projectile,” they said. But how? What type? From where? We didn’t know. We weren’t even sure where his residence was. Some said it was the Saadabad Palace, adding to the creeping anxiety. What if the Palace, a historic landmark, was damaged?
It was just too much. A friend wrote that he had diarrhea from the shock and stress. The fear of war looming –again. Not as intense as the fear we had when Soleimani was killed, but a gut-churning fear nevertheless.
Iran Finds New Buyers of Its Oil
Iran seems to have found new buyers of its crude oil as cargoes have been recently tracked to move to Oman and Bangladesh, Reuters reported on Friday, citing shipping sources and data.
Iran’s oil production has been recently estimated to have hit its highest level since 2018, as Tehran looks to boost output and exports, and export revenues with these, despite the U.S. sanctions.
Earlier this year, tankers were sighted and tracked near ports in Bangladesh and Oman, per available shipping data quoted by Reuters.
Inside Iran
Iran Executes Another Protester After Trial Condemned by Rights Groups
The Iranian authorities executed a 34-year-old man on Tuesday who was arrested during nationwide protests that shook the country in 2022 and who had been sentenced to death in a trial that rights groups condemned as unfair.
The Mizan news agency, which is overseen by Iran’s judiciary, reported that the man, Reza Rasaei, was executed on Tuesday morning at a prison in the city of Kermanshah.
The execution of Mr. Rasaei comes just weeks after Iran elected a reformist president in a vote that was largely seen as a rejection of hard-line conservative political factions that governed the country during the 2022 upheaval. Rights groups were quick to note that the execution of Mr. Rasaei suggested that real change was not necessarily to be expected.
Iranian police break neck of Afghan teen amid deportation crackdown
A 15-year-old Afghan has sustained severe injuries including a broken neck after Iranian police knelt on his neck amid escalating efforts to expel a growing number of Afghan immigrants.
According to Afghanistan International, Seyed Mehdi, who suffers from partial hearing problems, was fleeing from the police as they launched a series of attacks on migrants in a village in Damavand country in Tehran.
In a video of the incident, verified by Afghanistan International, two plainclothes officers and one uniformed officer are seen pinning the teenage to the ground next to a police vehicle.
Regional Politics
Israel Prepares for Expected Attacks by Iran and Hezbollah
Israel is girding for widely anticipated retaliatory attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, telling its people this week to stock up on food and water in fortified safe rooms, while hospitals prepare to move patients to underground wards and search-and-rescue teams position themselves in major cities.
The Israeli government’s security cabinet convened on Thursday night as speculation continued over how the country’s enemies might respond to the killing of a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon, and of Hamas’s top official while he was visiting Iran. Diplomats across the Middle East and elsewhere have tried to tamp down the tensions amid fears that the Israel-Hamas war raging in the Gaza Strip could broaden into a much bigger conflict across the region.
Intelligence has been sparse and changes frequently. But two Israeli officials and a senior Western intelligence official said that based on the latest information, Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group closely allied with Iran, will likely strike first in a separate attack before Iran conducts its own retaliation. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, and did not provide further details about the potential attacks.
Global Relations
Russia Risks Reputation Of Its Weapons Systems With Iran Air Defense Delivery
Russia has reportedly begun delivering radars and air defense equipment to the Islamic Republic of Iran amidst Tehran’s tense standoff with Israel. The move could potentially risk exposing additional vulnerabilities and weaknesses in advanced Russian systems, especially since Israel has already demonstrated its capability to target Russian air defenses in Iran.
Iranian officials requested the equipment and Russia has already begun delivery, The New York Times reported on Monday. The report cited two anonymous Iranian officials, one of whom is a member of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary.
The report did not specify the exact type of equipment Russia is delivering. Iran is interested in acquiring the long-range, strategic S-400 Triumf air defense missile system. Tehran acquired advanced S-300PMU-2 systems from Moscow in 2016 and also operates short and medium-range Russian Buk and Tor systems.
(Forbes)
Analysis
Will Europe Give Iran’s New President A Chance?
By: Eldar Mamedov
Another casualty of the alleged Israeli strike that assassinated the leader of Hamas’ political wing while he was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president could well be the prospect of renewed Iranian diplomacy with the U.S. and the European Union.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge for what Iran sees as a direct and brazen attack on its sovereignty. A further escalation of tensions between Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” and Israel and its allies would force Europeans to take Israel’s side and likely relegate diplomacy with the new administration in Tehran to the backburner before it even has a chance to start.
In his inauguration speech on July 30, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed to normalize Iran’s relations with the world, reflecting Tehran’s need to ease sanctions stifling the economy. His comments built on a vision he outlined soon after his election. While the gap with Europe has widened over Iran’s expanding nuclear program, support for Russia in Ukraine, differences over the Israel-Gaza war and domestic repression, Pezeshkian set out areas where cooperation would be possible, including trade, energy security, transit routes, environment and combating terrorism and drug trafficking.
